A web developer with 3.8 years of experience and a CRS score of 474 asked about their chances in an upcoming STEM category-based draw.
What group members advised:- STEM draw cutoffs were expected in the 470-480 range by one member at the time, which would put a score of 474 in a competitive but not certain position.
- The STEM cutoff tends to follow the general draw cutoff, not the other way around. Another member explained that IRCC typically clears the top of the pool with a general draw first, and the STEM category-based cutoff tends to be lower when the general draw cutoff is also lower — so watching the general draw trend gives a clue about where the STEM cutoff might land.
Takeaway: category-based draw cutoffs (like STEM) aren't set in isolation — they're influenced by how the general draw is clearing the pool. If you're on the edge of a category cutoff, tracking recent general draw trends can help you gauge your odds, though nothing is guaranteed and specific cutoffs are historical and change with every round.